Why Is Filmmaker Michael Moore Sure The Democrats Will Win The Midterm Election?

Michael Moore, who won an Academy Award for his documentaries, has been sending out a daily email called Mike’s Midterm Tsunami of Truth for the past month. He explains why he thinks Democrats will do well in the midterm elections next month.

Moore calls it “a short, honest dose of the truth every day, along with the real hope that these truths give us.” It also goes against what most political experts are saying right now, who think a Republican win is likely.

Any election cycle is a risky time to make predictions, but this one is especially so because Democrats are betting they can tie Republican candidates to an unpopular Supreme Court decision to overturn federal guarantees of a woman’s right to abortion. Republicans, on the other hand, are very focused on high inflation rates, problems with the economy, and fears about crime.

But political forecasting has become Moore’s business since he correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the 2016 presidential election, which went against what the media and pollsters thought would happen.

The emails he sends every day to explain more about why he thinks this will be “Roe-vember.” In missive #21 (Don’t Believe It), which he sent out on Tuesday, he talked about political fatalism and the idea spread by the media that the party in power always loses in midterm elections.

“This kind of reporting can be shocking because it can mess up the mind of the average American,” Moore wrote. “You might start to feel down. You’re ready to stop. You start to think that all of us liberals are losers. And if we keep thinking this way, we can start to bring the old story into being if we’re not careful.”

Moore, who is 68 years old, was reached by phone last week and said that his main goal is to stop people from thinking like a herd. He gives three examples of how political rules were misunderstood in the past few years.

“Six months ago, if I had told you, ‘You know Kansas, right? “If I said, ‘It’s a very pro-abortion state, and this summer, they’re going to keep abortion legal by a 60% margin,’ you’d think I was crazy,” he says.

“If I had told you at the same time that a Native Alaskan Democrat was going to win the congressional election in Alaska, which is a very red state, you would have to ask if I was crazy.”

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Lastly, he brings up Boise, Idaho, where an incumbent Republican candidate for the board of education was backed by a far-right group called the Idaho Liberty Dogs, but lost to an 18-year-old high school senior and progressive activist named Shiva Rajbhandari, who also helped start the Boise chapter of the climate group Extinction Rebellion.

Moore says that in each case, common ideas were questioned.

“I only went to high school, so maybe you shouldn’t get your news from me. If you’d just paid attention to Kansas, Idaho, and Alaska in the last six months, you would have seen the red flags going up,” he says.

Moore likes to go in unexpected directions. He is from Michigan, which has a lot of ties to anti-government movements. For example, Moore went to the same high school as Terry Nichols, who helped plan the Oklahoma City bombing.

His reading is not about the city. Last year, he wrote that the January 6 riot at the Capitol made Democrats feel like “insurrectionists.” “Deep down in your soul, as you watched what your eyes could not believe, admit to me that on January 6, 2021, when you saw what your eyes could not believe, you were, how do I put this, jealous that the fascists had risen up and not us long before now,” he wrote.

Moore says he’s not just trying to stir up trouble when he says the Democrats will win big. “I’m 68 years old and I don’t have time to waste. I really mean it.”

Moore thinks that a record number of young people who pundits and commentators often overlook will vote in this election. “If you spend any time with women, you know that the Dobbs decision hit them hard and close to home. This was a religious rule based on traditional Catholic beliefs.”

Moore doesn’t just criticise the right when he talks about politics. The Democrats have also made mistakes. “The Democratic party is the biggest thing standing in the way of what I’m trying to do with the series,” he says. He has been watching Democratic debates for governor and state elections on C-Span, which is a public US TV station.

“It’s very discouraging, and I’d even start to wonder how we could pull this off. The lines that the consultants for the Democratic party are giving out are so lame and weak. They don’t go for the throat as a Republican would. It doesn’t get people excited back home.”

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“We are on the verge of a critical election, and the Democratic party could be our biggest enemy,” he says.

But Moore also makes the point that the biggest political group in the US is not Republicans or Democrats, but people who don’t vote. This is often said, but not always taken seriously. Moore wants to reach this group of people who don’t vote. They could be the most powerful, but they are also hard to reach.

“The non-voter party doesn’t see how politics helps them, they’re sick of the hypocrisy, and a lot of them are sick of the crazy fighting that goes on and the craziness that Trump amplified,” Moore says, adding that when he turns on the TV in the evening, he doesn’t always go to a news channel but looks for a comedy.

So, Moore’s call to arms is to reach out to people who don’t believe. “Everyone who cares and thinks that our democracy might be hanging by a thread has to do something in the next three weeks,” says the author.

For him, he says, it might be as easy as calling a cousin who doesn’t vote and telling her why it’s important this time and that “she can go back to not voting after this.”

But what was he going to tell them?

“Aren’t you sick of doing nothing? All of this deadlock is nonsense. One way to get out of this stalemate is to give Democrats a chance to pass laws and see what happens. It might not work. They might have bad ideas. But no idea or decision paralyses the country and hurts it. If we talk like that, like normal people, it could help a lot.”

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