According To A Source, The Contest For The New Oregon Congressional Seat Is Currently A Tossup

According to one significant political site, the battle for Oregon’s new congressional seat, which was formerly seen as secure for Democrats, is now a “tossup” that Republicans can win.

On Tuesday morning, The Cook Political Report modified its assessment of the 6th Congressional District race from “lean Democrat” to “tossup.” The modification suggests that the contest may be determined by a small margin.

The new district, which encompasses elements of Portland’s southwest suburbs, a portion of Marion County, and portions of Polk and Yamhill counties, is up for election, and Republicans Mike Erickson and Democrats Andrea Salinas are both running.

Cook also gives the 5th Congressional District race, which covers Bend and Clackamas County, a toss-up rating. Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley, and Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who defeated seven-term incumbent Kurt Schrader in the primary, are running for the position.

The 4th Congressional District of Oregon contest between Democrats Val Hoyle and Alek Skarlatos is classified by the federal election watchdog as leaning Democratic. Tuesday’s requests for comment were not immediately answered by the spokespeople for Erickson and Salinas.

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The rating demonstrates that “Oregon people are rejecting Andrea Salinas and her party’s destructive ideology that has resulted in increasing prices and surging violent crime,” according to Courtney Parella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Campaign Committee.

New Oregon Congressional Seat Is Currently A Tossup
New Oregon Congressional Seat Is Currently A Tossup

The 6th Congressional District rating shift occurs shortly after Salinas’ team made public a poll indicating the race to be tied with 9% of potential voters still undecided. A poll by GBAO Strategies of 500 potential district voters revealed that Salinas had a slim lead over Erickson, 45% to 44%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

A Cook Political Report analyst named David Wasserman observed, “What once looked like a Democratic ‘gimme’ has evolved into a tough slog, and both parties are fully committed.”

In his opinion, Democrats may find it “trickier” to win the 6th District than they anticipated when they created the district and handed themselves an advantage in the previous election. As the co-chair of the House committee on redistricting, Salinas contributed to directing that process. With 147,700 registered Democrats, 121,800 registered Republicans, and 198,500 other voters, Democrats continue to hold a registration lead in the district.

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Since 2017, Salinas has praised the progressive policies on paid family and medical leave, police, and climate change that she worked to achieve as the legislator for Lake Oswego. If elected, Erickson, a supply chain consultant for businesses like Starbucks and Under Armour, says he will utilise his knowledge of the business world to support local law enforcement while working to reduce inflation.

Neither candidate has indicated a significant funding advantage. According to the most recent available campaign finance records, through June, Erickson raised roughly $1.4 million compared to Salinas’ $1.3 million.

After the federal reporting deadline later this week, those figures are expected to change. The campaign manager for Salinas, Shannon Geison, said in an email on Monday that they want to disclose having raised more than $1 million in the most recent quarter.

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