Bets on real devaluation fall to lowest level since October

Speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange made the biggest net purchase of reais in about a month at the turn of the year, reducing the overall pessimistic position on the Brazilian currency to the lowest level since October.

This group of financial agents – who usually operate with riskier and often directional positions – bought 4,210 contracts in reais in the week ended January 4th. It is the highest value since the week ended December 7 (8,218).

The data was released on Friday night by the CFTC, the agency that regulates futures and options markets in the United States.

The addition of reais to the portfolios, however, only reduced the general stock of “sold” bets in the Brazilian currency – that is, that gain with its devaluation. Positioning in this direction still totals 1,076 contracts, but this amount is the lowest since the week ended October 26 of last year (942).

The dollar has fluctuated within a tighter band in recent weeks, between 5.60 reais and 5.70 reais, and started the new year on a firmer note with the global rally of the US currency and renewed domestic fiscal concerns.

This Monday, the dollar rose 1%, to 5.6883 reais, after accumulating a high of 1.05% in the first business week of the new year. In 2021, the dollar appreciated 7.36%.

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